The real reason Trump is sending troops to the Mexican border

President Trump signed a memorandum to dispatch the National Guard to the southwest border last Wednesday. The associated memo justified the move by claiming that the "security of the United States is imperiled by a drastic surge of illegal activity on the southern border."

What surge is this? To be sure, attempts to cross the U.S. illegally or without proper documentation are up more than 200 percent in March compared to the same month last year. The 'Trump effect', which had intimidated migrants from attempting a crossing in the first months of the current administration, reached its full force in April of last year, but has faded since. Crossings have returned largely to normal levels.

Those drawn by the strong U.S. economy can be added as well. Border jumping has typically been driven by job opportunities in the U.S., and with labor shortages now emerging across the country, the incentive to come north for work is compelling. Consequently, according to Border Patrol data analyzed by my firm, we anticipated that 2018 would see one of the highest years for illegal immigration in this decade, and to date the numbers are largely in line with expectations. Nevertheless, there is no 'drastic surge', merely a recovery of normal crossing volumes adjusted for strong labor demand in the U.S.

As for drug trafficking, the administration would be well-advised to take credit for collapsing marijuana smuggling, which is the real story. From a 2009 high of 3.8 million pounds confiscated by Border Patrol in the field (as opposed to at official crossing points), we anticipate seizures to fall to 0.6 million pounds this year, a reduction of 84 percent.

The key driver of the collapse is the legalization of recreational marijuana, at first in Colorado and more recently in California, which has allowed domestic production to displace Mexican imports. As the U.S. industry becomes more established, it will continue to take share from lower quality, smuggled product.

The anticipated legalization of marijuana in New Jersey will put another nail in the smuggling coffin, and we anticipate a further two-thirds drop of marijuana smuggling in the field by 2021. The collapse of marijuana smuggling has nothing to do with border patrol and everything to do with legalization at the state level. Nevertheless, in the time honored tradition, U.S. presidents can take credit for achievements on their watch. President Trump should do so.

To continue reading visit: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/09/the-real-reason-trump-is-sending-troops-to-the-mexican-border.html