40% Of College Freshmen Likely WonÔÇÖt Attend This Fall

Following news Friday that 20% of Harvard freshmen have chosen to defer, a new survey out today suggests it will be even worse for the rest of higher education with 40% of expected freshmen attending 4-year residential colleges saying they are likely or highly likely to not attend this fall. On top of this, 28% of returning students say they are not going back or haven’t decided yet. Earlier surveys from late April suggested enrollment drops of as much as 20%. Higher ed leaders were hoping for more certainty as the school year got closer, but instead it looks like the forecast has thrown them a late-breaking curve ball and has substantially worsened.

What should college and university leaders do about this? What does this shift mean for students and parents? Will this be a year defined more by college switching or ditching? And what does this portend for the longer-term future of higher education in America? These are the critical questions to be wrestled with in the days, months and years to come. 

What Should College And University Leaders Do?

Although this won’t sound comforting to college officials, the honest truth about this fall is there’s very little that can be done to change what’s coming at this point in time. The fall term starts in mere days. It’s time to shift swiftly toward financial austerity and expense reductions. It’s time to transition from contingency planning to strategic planning. The game of survival and the ability to thrive going forward is dependent on shoring up and diversifying revenue and enrollments for next year and the years to follow. It’s also clear that a plan based on “business as usual” or “returning to the norm” from years past isn’t going to work. 

The unbundling of the college value proposition has begun. Much like a significant number of employees and employers have realized working from home can work, more students and parents are realizing similar things about college. There’s a number of ways to do it and a growing number of alternatives to explore. This year will be noted in higher ed history as the year students and parents began dissecting and compartmentalizing the various components of the college value proposition.

What Does This Shift Mean For Students And Parents?

If 40% of college freshmen and 28% of returning students suggest they may opt out of this fall, what does this tell us? On one hand, it could say students and parents value the in-person, traditional college experience so much that they will wait until it is fully available. On the other hand, it suggests they are contemplating a number of potential alternatives – ranging from fully online universities to community colleges, gap years, and “Go Pro Early” opportunities. 

In all cases, it has awakened a new and lasting era of education consumers who are carefully evaluating every component of the college value proposition. There was solid evidence this trend began long before Covid-19 with concerns about college affordability and the work readiness of graduates weighing heavily on college decisions. In simple terms, students and parents are going to see and take advantage of more choices – even after the pandemic abates. 

Will This Be A Year Defined More By College Switching Or Ditching?

If students are changing their intended plan of residential four-year college, what are they doing instead? Will this be a year defined more by students switching to enroll in less expensive community college or fully online universities? Or will they truly be ditching college altogether for the fall? And for those making alternative plans, how many are planning to do it temporarily versus how many will ultimately continue down the new path permanently? Really, it’s anyone’s guess. Given that the perceived importance of college has dropped nearly 50% among young adults in the past six years, it’s likely there will indeed be some college ditching this year and in the years to come. But most students and parents still value college, so I’d be betting on more switching – college, done in various ways. 

What Does This Portend For The Longer-Term Future of Higher Education?

The extreme, near-term financial challenges forced by the pandemic are not just the outcome of an unforeseen ‘black swan’ event. It’s also a manifestation of a broken business model in higher education. It has become increasingly unaffordable for too many Americans while colleges have largely combatted this trend not by reducing the cost of college but by increasing discount rates. With many residential colleges relying considerably on residential and auxiliary services revenue, they’ve become increasingly reliant upon on-campus students to survive. 

The overall enrollment trends for higher education look bleak as our country nears a demographic drop in traditional college-age students starting in 2025. And with the pandemic wreaking massive havoc in the meantime, colleges will need to innovate their way out of this. The higher education leaders who turn their thinking and action toward the future will find there are many ideas and opportunities to grow enrollments, diversify revenue and deliver even more on their mission.

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